Indonesian MSMEs Stock Prices Prediction using Small Data Sample Model
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32832/jm-uika.v16i1.17762Keywords:
Indonesian MSMEs, Stock Price, Prediction, ARIMAAbstract
The impact of stock prices on new enterprises, particularly MSMEs (Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises), in Indonesia is significant. Given the significance of stock prices for MSMEs, it is crucial to engage in stock price forecasting. Several stock price forecasting models exist, but only a limited number are suitable for predicting stock prices using tiny samples, such as the stock prices of MSMEs in Indonesia. The limited sample size is due to the fact that MSMEs are newly established enterprises that are accessing the stock prices. This study aims to predict the stock prices of Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) in Indonesia, namely SOUL and TGUK. The forecasting models utilized are ARIMA. The results suggest that the ARIMA (0,1,1) model provides the most precise forecast for the stock price of SOUL MSMEs, while the ARIMA (1,1,2) model yields the greatest performance for TGUK. Investors can use the forecast results to identify profitable investment opportunities or protect their portfolio from potential losses. Moreover, companies can employ stock price predictions to evaluate their performance, develop financial plans, and allocate resources
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